Predictions, analysis, and general thoughts about the state of American politics going back to the 2006 midterm elections.
Polling, Media Narratives and the Virginia Governor's race
The temptation for journalists to focus on the "horse race" of campaigns has always existed, but few have seen their coverage as totally determined by the results of questionable polls than today's Virginia elections
The Fatal Lack of Republican Messaging on Healthcare
A flaw of Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare has been a lack of agreement on why they are doing so. With the most recent effort, there seems to have been a abandonment of even trying to claim healthcare will improve
Weimar Street Politics Comes to America
Extremists on Both Right and Left want to coopt respectability. Mainstream political parties and the media are letting them by focusing on equivalency of views rather than actions.
The "Soft Brexit" myth: If "Hard Brexit" is off the table, the UK should withdraw Article 50
It is now clear that on Brexit there is no "deal" to be made. If British voters truly value immigration control more than economics they need to be prepared to walk. And if they value economics, "Soft Brexit" is a fraud
The Politics of TPP and Mexico City
By connecting killing TPP and the reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy on abortion, the Trump Adminstration handed orginized labor their greatest politican win in decades while ensuring foes would only talk abortion
American Brexit - Putting the Referendum in American Context
To understand how the British electorate could disregard the advice of the entire politicana and economic elite to vote to leave the EU, imagine if Donald Trump's immigration proposals were put up for a vote in America.
The rotten three legs of the stool: Donald Trump didn't destroy American Conservatism, it was already rotten to the core
Donald Trump's victory did not represent a defeat for American conservatism. By the time he arrived, it had already ideologically defeated itself. He found himself pushing on an open door.
Why Attacks on Trump's Foriegn Policy Views Backfire
Donald Trump's foes have repeatedly tried to make light of his ideological heresies. Nowhere has this been more blatent than with regard to his foriegn policy views, and nowhere have such efforts been less successful.
Thoughts on the February 25th Republican Debate
Last night Marco Rubio continued his strategy of endeavoring to place himself to Donald Trump's right, a strategy whose purpose is open to question even if it could credibly be carried out.
Post-Debate Thoughts: Forget Trump, Rubio Needs a Message and a 21st Century Campaign Team
Anyone wondering why Trump is winning the GOP primary could have turned into the last debate to be enlightened on why his opponents are losing. And why Rubio, despite accolades is not ready for primetime.
Bernie Sanders' Demographic Challenge
Whatever his success in winning over online activists, Bernie Sanders faces the same obstacle as any left-wing insurgent in the Democratic party; winning over non-white voters who care more about winning in November.
The Third Stage of Grief: The Dukakis-esque Premise of the Walker Campaign
Republicans rushing to embrace Scott Walker's campaign are betting that 2008 and 2012 were outliers, and that the winning strategy in 2016 requires nothing further than to not run against Barack Obama.
Combined 2014 Senate Rankings and Guide
A complete, state by state guide to the 2014 US Midterm elections.
Five Thoughts About the Recent US Elections
Five reflections on the results of the 2012 elections.