Predictions, analysis, and general thoughts about the state of American politics going back to the 2006 midterm elections.
Why the US Congress is Headed to a Shutdown over DACA
It is an article of faith among the American political elite that the DACA program is universally popular and a political winner for Democrats. That premise is being put to the test this week.
Polling, Media Narratives and the Virginia Governor's race
The temptation for journalists to focus on the "horse race" of campaigns has always existed, but few have seen their coverage as totally determined by the results of questionable polls than today's Virginia elections
The "Soft Brexit" myth: If "Hard Brexit" is off the table, the UK should withdraw Article 50
It is now clear that on Brexit there is no "deal" to be made. If British voters truly value immigration control more than economics they need to be prepared to walk. And if they value economics, "Soft Brexit" is a fraud
The Politics of TPP and Mexico City
By connecting killing TPP and the reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy on abortion, the Trump Adminstration handed orginized labor their greatest politican win in decades while ensuring foes would only talk abortion
American Brexit - Putting the Referendum in American Context
To understand how the British electorate could disregard the advice of the entire politicana and economic elite to vote to leave the EU, imagine if Donald Trump's immigration proposals were put up for a vote in America.
Why Attacks on Trump's Foriegn Policy Views Backfire
Donald Trump's foes have repeatedly tried to make light of his ideological heresies. Nowhere has this been more blatent than with regard to his foriegn policy views, and nowhere have such efforts been less successful.
Bernie Sanders' Demographic Challenge
Whatever his success in winning over online activists, Bernie Sanders faces the same obstacle as any left-wing insurgent in the Democratic party; winning over non-white voters who care more about winning in November.
Combined 2014 Senate Rankings and Guide
A complete, state by state guide to the 2014 US Midterm elections.
Five Thoughts About the Recent US Elections
Five reflections on the results of the 2012 elections.