UK Politics

Analysis and thoughts regarding politics in my present country of residence.

Jeremy Corbyn Holds No Deal in His Hands

A majority in Parliament probably will be able to stop a No Deal Brexit and almost everyone assumes it will. But all such assumptions rest on Jeremy Corbyn cooperating. The real question is why should he?

June 15, 2019
July 17, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Only Way for the Conservatives to Win on Brexit is to Lose

There is a lack of reality about the Conservative leadership contest that goes beyond basic math or parliamentary arithmetic. No one considers what they hope Brexit will accomplish.

June 11, 2019
June 15, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Brexit at High Tide: Remain is winning the Guerilla War on Brexit

The Brexit Party won the 2019 European Elections in the United Kingdom, but Brexit as a cause lost. By failing to breakthrough outside traditional right-wing voter circles, all incentive for Labour to back Brexit is gone

May 29, 2019
May 29, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Theresa May united her party in the end

Theresa May's resignation represents not Conservative divisions over Brexit, but an increasing consensus. Whatever the merits of the policy, the Tories must go down as the party of Brexit.

May 24, 2019
May 24, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Parliament Fiddles, While Remainers Push Britain Towards the Cliff

Steve Baker may have not been at his most reflective when he lashed out at the House of Commons' grandstanding over indicative votes, but he was absolutely right to describe it as pantomime carried out by cowards.

March 28, 2019
March 28, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The EU Gives the UK a Final Chance to Determine its Fate

The results of the EU Summit on March 21-22 were a major humiliation to Theresa May, as the EU bypassed her to issue an ultimatum directly to the UK Parliament. But they did so with little hope it would be taken up.

March 22, 2019
March 23, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The EU Contemplates Letting the UK Fall Off the Cliff

While I still believe the UK is headed for a long Article 50 extension, I increasingly feel the EU is contemplating the prospect of a "Temporary No Deal" to remove the threat of an A50 revocation and teach a lesson

March 20, 2019
July 17, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Brexit Endgame December: A Choice of Poison

The decision to pull the vote on her proposed agreement with the EU may have saved Theresa May a defeat in the Commons, but it may have forfeited a chance to force a confronation with the bankrupcy of almost all options

December 11, 2018
January 15, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Thoughts on the 2017 UK General Election

The implications of the Conservative government of Theresa May losing its majority in the House of Commons on June 9th, 2017 have dominated media discourse. Momentous enough, exageration has taken the place of analysis

June 14, 2017
June 14, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Closing the Gap? The UK Elections 14 Days Out

Even before last nights YouGov and Survation polls the gap was already closing between Labour and the Tories. The dynamics of the campaign made this inevitable, just as they ensure the tough part lies ahead for Corbyn

May 20, 2017
May 21, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

28 Days out: The UK 2017 Elections

The first of several looks at the polling, campaigns, and dynamics of the UK 2017 election..

May 12, 2017
May 12, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

A Feature, Not a Bug: Why May is using the status of EU Nationals to tempt her enemies into destruction

Theresa May's stubborness on the right of EU nationals to remain in the UK will force hard choices on many MPs. That is precisely why the Prime Minister is so insistent on doing it.

March 8, 2017
March 8, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Initial Thoughts on the Brexit Rulling

The High Court ruling is a defeat for the May government, but it is a defeat that if they did not actually court, nevertheless serves their interests very well.

November 3, 2016
November 3, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Fiasco: How the Brexit Coup Failed

If Brexit was a coup, then it must stand alongside the August 1991 effort in Moscow as one of worst fiascos in history. In the end, it entrenched those already in power, and left their enemies prostrate before them.

July 12, 2016
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

What if there was an election, and it was about nothing at all? The issue free Labour leadership contest.

Not since the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primaries has there been an election as devoid of issues as the Labour Leadership contest. The result has been to present an image of a party wracked by personal feuds.

July 11, 2016
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

One of Them: Why the "Remainer" Theresa May is winning the Conservative leadership

Seeing Conservative leadership race in terms of Leavers v. Remainers misses the point. Theresa May might have backed Remain, but on a tribal level Leavers know she is one of them in a way Gove or Johnson never could be.

July 4, 2016
July 4, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Politics is not a drama: Michael Gove's failed bid

Michael Gove may have acted out a real life episode of House of Cards, but the net effect of his manuevers is likely to the eclipse of his own career.

July 3, 2016
July 5, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Labour's Leadership Election

In the circumstances that currently prevail, it strikes me aas a deeply unwise move for Jeremy Corbyn's foes to force a battle to the death over an issue, the EU referendum, regarding which they themselves lack a policy

June 27, 2016
July 4, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Sovereignty, Spite and Timing: Why someone who agrees with many of the arguments for Leave, would still vote to Remain

Brexit would be a disaster. Which is why it is sad that the Remain has done everything in its power to make me root for British voters to cast their ballots for Leave.

June 21, 2016
June 30, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

On Demonization, "Elites", and Jo Cox

Jo Cox's murder takes place within the environment of a bitter referendum campaign, but also needs to be placed within a wider context of demonization of entire classes of individuals.

June 18, 2016
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

David Cameron's Dangerous Few Months

The first weeks of the EU referendum campaign have not gone according to plan from the perspective of Prime Minister David Cameron. What was intended to undermine his rivals has instead strengthened them, dangerously so.

March 21, 2016
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

You should not fear Corbyn because he opposes Trident Now, but because he did so in the 1980s

Viewing the renewel of the Trident system as a waste of money should not be disqualifying for Corbyn. What should be is his opposition to Britain's independent deterent in the 1980s when there was good reason for it

September 13, 2015
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Left-Wing Economic Views are not Jeremy Corbyn's Real Problem

It his seeming associations with enemies of the United Kingdom and eccentric views on migration, rather than his fetish for nationalization, which are likely to pose the most problems for Labour under Corbyn's leadership

July 26, 2015
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Labour's Strategic Problem

Labour supporters may be right to blame fears of a possible coalition with the SNP for costing them power in May. But with the SNP dominant in Scotland, it is not a problem likely to go away anytime soon.

June 12, 2015
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

On Echo Chambers and Politics: Labour picks the wrong fight over the EU referendum

The decision to champion the cause of EU citizens resident in the UK to vote in any referendum on EU membership illustrates the challenges Labour has in culturally connecting with voters within its own heartlands.

May 28, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Labour's Cultural Obliviousness: Responding to Public Concerns on Immigration and the EU

Rather than figuring out why the voters did not want to hire them, the Labour party seems determined to complain about the fantasy of hiriing a different set of voters.

May 12, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Thoughts on the Scottish Referendum Part 1: Polling

There are serious reasons to doubt the validity of the recent Yougov poll showing the Yes side ahead in Scotland's upcoming referendum on independence, not least as the lead appears to be a proudct of weighting.

September 7, 2014
July 5, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Obama-ization of British Politics: Why Labour Should be Wary of David Axelrod

In the rush to take advantage of the tactics that allowed Barack Obama to win the 2012 election, the Labour party may be forgetting how very different the two countries are, and setting itself up for a major defeat.

April 18, 2014
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Cameron, UKIP, and the Lessons of Stanley Baldwin

In its appeal to populism, and relience on the support of press barons, the challenge UKIP poses to the Conservative party resembles earlier insurgency in which tight knit ideological groups sought to take over the party

August 30, 2013
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The European Election Campaign Highlights the Political Failure of Remain

The European elections should have been a chance for those who supported Remaining in the EU to demonstrate popular support. Instead it seems to be highlighting their messaging failures.

May 18, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Brexit Endgame: Why a Longterm Extension is More Likely than a No Deal Crashout

With the March 29th deadline set out in Article 50 approaching, all eyes in the UK press are on London. But the Westminster centered focus of the UK media ignores that British politicians are increasingly irrelevent

March 11, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman